Japan
Why compare Japan’s two shares?
Birthplace Probability Calculator & Birth Lottery
Country annual birth weight ÷ sum of covered annual birth weights. Population and birth weights have different denominators.
The country draw uses annual birth weights in the bundled game dataset. Population mode instead uses population weights. Neither mode predicts your real life.
Game dataset: inherited estimates; individual observation years are unverified. These are model weights, not an official current world probability.
Search filters both the country list and the table below.
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Game dataset: inherited estimates; individual observation years are unverified. These are model weights, not an official current world probability.
| Country | Draw mode (%) | 1 / N |
|---|---|---|
| India | 17.5995% | 6 |
| China | 6.7458% | 15 |
| Nigeria | 5.6921% | 18 |
| Pakistan | 5.2163% | 19 |
| Indonesia | 3.3975% | 29 |
| Congo - Kinshasa | 3.3121% | 30 |
| Ethiopia | 3.1120% | 32 |
| United States | 2.7722% | 36 |
| Bangladesh | 2.6453% | 38 |
| Brazil | 1.9720% | 51 |
| Egypt | 1.8234% | 55 |
| Tanzania | 1.7785% | 56 |
| Mexico | 1.5445% | 65 |
| Philippines | 1.3950% | 72 |
| Uganda | 1.2982% | 77 |
| Sudan | 1.2749% | 78 |
| Kenya | 1.1369% | 88 |
| Afghanistan | 1.1135% | 90 |
| Vietnam | 1.0520% | 95 |
| Yemen | 1.0512% | 95 |
| Angola | 1.0470% | 96 |
| Russia | 0.9832% | 102 |
| Mozambique | 0.9557% | 105 |
| South Africa | 0.8995% | 111 |
| Iran | 0.8894% | 112 |
| Iraq | 0.8790% | 114 |
| Niger | 0.8306% | 120 |
| Türkiye | 0.8125% | 123 |
| Madagascar | 0.7589% | 132 |
| Côte d’Ivoire | 0.7557% | 132 |
| Cameroon | 0.7257% | 138 |
| Mali | 0.7212% | 139 |
| Uzbekistan | 0.7152% | 140 |
| Algeria | 0.6867% | 146 |
| Myanmar (Burma) | 0.6851% | 146 |
| Ghana | 0.6738% | 148 |
| Chad | 0.6208% | 161 |
| Somalia | 0.5979% | 167 |
| Japan | 0.5684% | 176 |
| Burkina Faso | 0.5523% | 181 |
| Germany | 0.5452% | 183 |
| Colombia | 0.5344% | 187 |
| United Kingdom | 0.5218% | 192 |
| Zambia | 0.5196% | 192 |
| Malawi | 0.5020% | 199 |
| France | 0.4843% | 207 |
| Morocco | 0.4774% | 209 |
| Thailand | 0.4481% | 223 |
| Nepal | 0.4353% | 230 |
| Saudi Arabia | 0.4139% | 242 |
| Peru | 0.4090% | 244 |
| Senegal | 0.4032% | 248 |
| Syria | 0.3954% | 253 |
| Argentina | 0.3819% | 262 |
| Zimbabwe | 0.3766% | 266 |
| Guinea | 0.3696% | 271 |
| Benin | 0.3624% | 276 |
| Burundi | 0.3493% | 286 |
| Malaysia | 0.3305% | 303 |
| Venezuela | 0.3236% | 309 |
| Kazakhstan | 0.3103% | 322 |
| Rwanda | 0.2998% | 334 |
| Italy | 0.2915% | 343 |
| Guatemala | 0.2859% | 350 |
| Cambodia | 0.2741% | 365 |
| Canada | 0.2704% | 370 |
| North Korea | 0.2593% | 386 |
| Spain | 0.2553% | 392 |
| South Sudan | 0.2488% | 402 |
| Sri Lanka | 0.2457% | 407 |
| Poland | 0.2410% | 415 |
| Australia | 0.2307% | 434 |
| Tajikistan | 0.2057% | 486 |
| Ecuador | 0.2049% | 488 |
| Togo | 0.2035% | 491 |
| Bolivia | 0.1972% | 507 |
| Sierra Leone | 0.1962% | 510 |
| Haiti | 0.1958% | 511 |
| Papua New Guinea | 0.1935% | 517 |
| Central African Republic | 0.1810% | 552 |
| South Korea | 0.1792% | 558 |
| Jordan | 0.1787% | 560 |
| Honduras | 0.1772% | 564 |
| Ukraine | 0.1609% | 622 |
| Dominican Republic | 0.1540% | 649 |
| Congo - Brazzaville | 0.1435% | 697 |
| Romania | 0.1392% | 718 |
| Chile | 0.1335% | 749 |
| Mauritania | 0.1310% | 763 |
| Israel | 0.1306% | 766 |
| Liberia | 0.1289% | 776 |
| Netherlands | 0.1272% | 786 |
| Tunisia | 0.1271% | 787 |
| Laos | 0.1236% | 809 |
| Turkmenistan | 0.1213% | 824 |
| Kyrgyzstan | 0.1143% | 875 |
| Palestinian Territories | 0.1110% | 901 |
| Paraguay | 0.1037% | 965 |
| Taiwan | 0.1004% | 996 |
| Nicaragua | 0.1002% | 998 |
| Azerbaijan | 0.0948% | 1054 |
| Libya | 0.0943% | 1061 |
| United Arab Emirates | 0.0788% | 1268 |
| Belgium | 0.0771% | 1297 |
| El Salvador | 0.0754% | 1327 |
| Eritrea | 0.0751% | 1332 |
| Sweden | 0.0742% | 1347 |
| Cuba | 0.0727% | 1375 |
| Lebanon | 0.0706% | 1416 |
| Czechia | 0.0696% | 1436 |
| Portugal | 0.0657% | 1523 |
| Hungary | 0.0647% | 1545 |
| Oman | 0.0645% | 1551 |
| Switzerland | 0.0634% | 1576 |
| Gambia | 0.0622% | 1607 |
| Austria | 0.0584% | 1712 |
| Namibia | 0.0581% | 1720 |
| Greece | 0.0558% | 1791 |
| Panama | 0.0542% | 1846 |
| Gabon | 0.0521% | 1919 |
| Belarus | 0.0493% | 2028 |
| Mongolia | 0.0493% | 2029 |
| Guinea-Bissau | 0.0490% | 2040 |
| Bulgaria | 0.0475% | 2106 |
| Botswana | 0.0465% | 2152 |
| Serbia | 0.0454% | 2205 |
| New Zealand | 0.0449% | 2227 |
| Denmark | 0.0438% | 2282 |
| Lesotho | 0.0422% | 2367 |
| Equatorial Guinea | 0.0415% | 2412 |
| Ireland | 0.0404% | 2477 |
| Slovakia | 0.0396% | 2524 |
| Costa Rica | 0.0394% | 2539 |
| Norway | 0.0391% | 2560 |
| Kuwait | 0.0374% | 2674 |
| Singapore | 0.0360% | 2779 |
| Georgia | 0.0332% | 3015 |
| Finland | 0.0330% | 3029 |
| Hong Kong SAR China | 0.0313% | 3195 |
| Armenia | 0.0263% | 3806 |
| Uruguay | 0.0253% | 3945 |
| Jamaica | 0.0250% | 3997 |
| Moldova | 0.0250% | 4000 |
| Croatia | 0.0238% | 4196 |
| Timor-Leste | 0.0232% | 4317 |
| Eswatini | 0.0225% | 4454 |
| Qatar | 0.0224% | 4470 |
| Albania | 0.0218% | 4581 |
| Bosnia & Herzegovina | 0.0186% | 5370 |
| Comoros | 0.0185% | 5415 |
| Djibouti | 0.0182% | 5510 |
| Solomon Islands | 0.0163% | 6123 |
| Lithuania | 0.0162% | 6155 |
| Kosovo | 0.0155% | 6431 |
| Bahrain | 0.0148% | 6746 |
| Slovenia | 0.0136% | 7370 |
| North Macedonia | 0.0128% | 7817 |
| Guyana | 0.0127% | 7870 |
| Fiji | 0.0126% | 7933 |
| Trinidad & Tobago | 0.0122% | 8198 |
| Cyprus | 0.0110% | 9084 |
| Latvia | 0.0108% | 9258 |
| Mauritius | 0.0089% | 11177 |
| Estonia | 0.0084% | 11955 |
| Suriname | 0.0082% | 12127 |
| Bhutan | 0.0075% | 13249 |
| Montenegro | 0.0053% | 18899 |
| Luxembourg | 0.0053% | 18994 |
| Cape Verde | 0.0049% | 20486 |
| Maldives | 0.0044% | 22767 |
| Macao SAR China | 0.0034% | 29221 |
| Malta | 0.0032% | 31316 |
Read the model behind a country
India
Does a large birth weight make the outcome predictable?
United States
What changes when the United States is selected directly?
South Korea
Why can a small birth share still be a useful starting point?
China
Why separate China’s population size from its birth weight?
Nigeria
What does Nigeria’s birth-to-population contrast show?